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It is only in the last ten years that we reached the milestone that 50% of the world’s population now lives in cities. The current consensus is that by the middle of the century it will be around 70%. Furthermore, 10% of the world lives in cities of over 10m population.
This rapid growth increases the pressure on the economy and infrastructure - including transport, education and health. Energy and food security will be major problems in many countries in both the developed and developing worlds. Add to that the impact of climate change and it is easy to be overwhelmed.
The houses we build today will need to cope with the world that is to come. Much of today’s housing stock will need to be adapted to deliver the services needed to support an ageing population and new patterns of working, learning and commerce. While we cannot predict the future, we can at least attempt to mitigate some of the likely effects.
Rightmove recently published evidence that house prices can be impacted by the absence of broadband up to 20% now, making this infrastructure nearly as impactful as a good school. We are at the start of the next phase of development of the internet, known as the internet of things (IoT).
The vision of the IoT encompasses components such as self-driving cars, domestic appliances, smart homes and smart cities. What may sound like science fiction today is already evident, albeit at small scale around the world.
Anyone interested in the future of property, be it domestic or commercial, should look at the Smart Cities movement. Why? There is a simple premise that matters here: “you can’t manage what you can’t measure”. To meet the challenges of the urban environments of 2020-2050 we need to develop a lot of data to help manage our environments for economic, social, and environmental reasons. It is currently estimated that by 2020 there will be 50bn sensors on the planet. That is seven for every person alive. Many of those sensors are going into smart cities; Barcelona, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Copenhagen are some of the leading lights in the area.
In the end what we want is to build homes, offices and other buildings where people want to live, work and play. For me, smart cities will be to the 21st century what skyscrapers were to New York in the 20th. Housing is going to see more change in the next 20 years than it has seen in the last 100. New materials, new processes and new skills will all impact on where and how we build our homes to be fit for the future.
The pressures in the sector in the short term to make good the under construction of the last 30 years risks missing the opportunity to build a better and more sustainable future. Let’s not miss the chance.
Chris Yapp is an independent consultant specialising in Innovation and Futures Thinking
This article is based on Chris Yapp’s presentation at the Brethertons Property Management Summit.