This winter’s biggest risk to your block isn’t the roof. It’s the reserve fund

For anyone involved in managing blocks of flats, that raises an important question: if something significant happens this winter, is there actually enough money available to deal with it properly?

El Niño is an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean which affects weather patterns around the world. This year’s event has already broken temperature records before its expected peak, and the World Meteorological Organization expects it to continue into early 2027.

Its effect on the UK is indirect, so nobody can say exactly what this winter will bring. The Met Office has said the chances of a warm, wet autumn are higher than normal, with an increased risk of wind and flooding as the season progresses.

But from a block management point of view, the weather is only part of the problem.

Over the years, I have seen buildings cope with serious problems while others have struggled with much smaller incidents. Quite often, the difference is preparation and whether there are funds available to act quickly.

That is where reserves matter.

The cost of being unprepared

The £6.1 billion paid out in property claims during 2025 was the highest figure recorded by the Association of British Insurers since it began collecting comparable data. The average domestic flood claim also reached £30,000.

For blocks of flats, insurance will not necessarily cover everything.

There may be a substantial excess, some items may fall outside the policy and insurers may cover resulting damage without paying to replace the failed asset itself.

A roof at the end of its life is a good example: the water damage may be insured, while replacing the roof still falls to the service charge.

That money has to come from somewhere.

One of the realities of block management is that buildings do not wait for the next budget cycle.

A leaking roof does not wait for another directors’ meeting, and a flooded basement does not stop getting worse while funding is discussed.

When something needs dealing with urgently, having money available can make a huge difference.

Same storm. Very different outcome.

Imagine two neighbouring blocks built to a similar design.

A winter storm damages part of the flat roof on both buildings and water starts entering the top-floor flats.

At the first block, an emergency roofer attends that day. Temporary protection is installed, the insurer is notified and reserves cover the immediate costs while a permanent repair is organised.

Leaseholders are kept informed and everyone understands what is happening. It is inconvenient, but manageable.

At the second block, there is very little money in reserve.

The directors must consider an emergency service charge demand, short-term borrowing or dispensation from the Section 20 consultation requirements.

That takes time. Meanwhile, the water is still coming in.

Damage spreads, residents become frustrated and the eventual cost can be considerably higher.

The physical problem started in exactly the same way at both buildings. The difference was how quickly each one was able to respond.

Most experienced managing agents will have seen some version of this.

Quite often, it is not the original defect that causes the biggest problem. It is the delay in dealing with it.

That can be the difference between a building having a bad week and having a bad year.

What it means for leaseholders

For leaseholders, the issue becomes personal very quickly.

A poorly funded reserve can mean an unexpected demand for hundreds or thousands of pounds at short notice.

Repairs may be delayed while money is collected, allowing damage to spread.

Even where an insurance claim is accepted, the policy excess will normally have to be paid through the service charge.

A useful question for any leaseholder is: How much do we hold in reserve, and what is it intended to cover?

Having a reserve fund is one thing. Having a reserve fund that properly reflects the likely future needs of the building is something else.

In my view, too many blocks focus on keeping service charges low without enough thought about what happens when major repairs are needed.

Low service charges may look attractive in the short term, but underfunding a building can become very expensive later on.

Where problems usually appear first

During long periods of bad weather, water ingress is often the first issue to show up.

Blocked gutters, ageing flat roofs, failed flashings and poor drainage can go unnoticed until several days of heavy rain expose the problem.

High winds create different risks, including loose roof materials, damaged fencing and problems with scaffolding.

Basements are another obvious pressure point, particularly where pumps or drainage systems are involved.

Then there is contractor availability.

After a major storm, good roofing and drainage contractors get busy quickly. Buildings with reliable contractors and agreed emergency arrangements are usually in a far better position.

Flat-roofed blocks, older conversions, basements and sites undergoing major works may face greater exposure.

But the condition of the building is only part of it.

A building with known risks, sensible maintenance planning and healthy reserves can be stronger than one with fewer apparent problems but little money available.

What directors can do now

• Clear gutters, downpipes and roof outlets.

• Inspect roofs, particularly where there has been previous water ingress.

• Review scaffolding arrangements where works are taking place.

• Test basement pumps and drainage systems.

• Check insurance cover, exclusions and excesses.

• Photograph the current condition of key areas.

• Agree emergency contractor arrangements in advance.

• Review reserve levels against expected future works.

• Make sure exposed pipework and communal heating systems are ready for colder weather.

Beyond this winter

The 2026 El Niño changes the odds, but it does not guarantee that the UK will have a severe winter.

That is not really the point.

Good block management is not about predicting exactly what will happen. It is about making sure the building can cope when something does.

Repair costs are rising. Insurance claims are becoming more expensive. Leaseholders quite reasonably expect problems to be dealt with quickly.

In my experience, the most resilient buildings are not necessarily the newest or the most expensive.

They are usually the ones where somebody has thought ahead.

They maintain the building, watch future expenditure and put enough aside to deal with problems when they arise.

A healthy reserve fund will not stop the rain coming in or prevent a roof from failing.

What it can do is stop a manageable problem from becoming a crisis.

And when the next storm arrives, the difference between a manageable problem and a major crisis may simply come down to whether the money was there when it was needed.

Fred Alebiosu MTPI AssocRICS PgDip (Real Est), Director, Ivystone Asset Management

References

1. Met Office (September 2026). What does the latest long-range forecast tell us and what role could El Niño play this autumn? https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/what-does-the-latest-long-range-forecast-tell-us-and-what-role-could-el-nio-play-this-autumn

2. Met Office (2026). El Niño declared for 2026 as Pacific warms. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/el-nino-declared-for-2026-as-pacific-warms

3. Met Office (15 April 2026). Pacific Ocean warming signals the possible return of a strong El Niño. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/met-office-what-is-el-nino-and-will-we-see-one-this-year

4. The Guardian (21 September 2026). ‘Jaw-dropping’ El Niño bursts through temperature record months before peak. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/21/super-el-nino-temperature-record

5. UN News / World Meteorological Organization (September 2026). El Niño is surging. Months of extreme heat could follow. https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/09/1168265

6. Association of British Insurers (February 2026). Adverse weather pushes property insurance payouts to £6.1 billion in 2025. https://www.abi.org.uk/media-hub/news-post/adverse-weather-pushes-property-insurance-payouts-to-61-billion-in-2025

Forecast information checked 21 September 2026.